Weather blog from MarylandWeather.com

October was wettest, third-coolest on record for U.S.

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 16:02:28 -0500

NOAA's October data are in, and the agency is rpeorting the October in the U.S. was, on average, the wettest, and the third-coolest October on the 115-year record for the lower-48 states.

Temperatures were below-normal in all regions except the Southeast (and in New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland, which were near-normal). Florida was the only state to report above-average temperatures. (Left)

The cross-country average of 4.15 inches of rain was the highest on record, nearly doubling the long-term average for October. Moderate-to-exceptional drought covered 12 percent of the contiguous United States, the second-smallest drought footprint of the decade, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor.

You can read the entire release, here. (Cue the global warming skeptics...)

Ida's remnant rain may stay mostly south of us

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 11:32:28 -0500

Forecasters at the National Weather Service's Sterling forecast office are wrestling with computer models that can't quite agree on how much of Ida's moisture will make it to Maryland this week.

Remnants of what was once the third hurricane of the 2009 season have crossed the Gulf Coast and swept inland, bringing heavy rains to parts of the Deep South. But there is high pressure to our northwest, and a cold front ahead of it that appears to constitute a barrier to the northward advance of Ida's rains.

"It's the remnants of Ida, and how quickly/how far its rainfall spreads northward that will determine the outcome of this forecast," the forecasters say in this morning's discussion.

For now, the official forecast out of Sterling is calling for a chance for rain to develop after 10 p.m. this evening as the Gulf moisture begins to run up against the cold front. Veterans Day comes with a 30 percent chance for rain or drizzle, with temperatures held in the mid-50s. The drizzle chances continue in to the evening. But the rest of the week, and right into early next week, looks sunny with seasonable highs near 60 degrees.

Whatever happens here, it appears the coastal counties will see some considerable wind and rain in the next few days, with some chance for minor coastal flooding as a series of offshore lows keep persistent northeast winds shove more water onto the bay and ocean shorelines.

Reader recalls early 1953 snowstorm

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 10:43:18 -0500

Last week I wrote a brief comment on the print weather page about the early snowstorm that paralyzed Baltimore back on Nov. 6-7, 1953. I wondered if anyone would remember the storm, which was the earliest "heavy" (four inches or more) snowfall in Baltimore weather records.

This week I received the following note from Joan Parr, who clearly did. She writes:

"Mr. Roylance:

"If my memory serves me right, the storm you mentioned in your blog (on Friday, Nov. 6. 2009) was indeed a traffic-snarler. Drivers acted as if they had never seen snow before, and they just kept moving, right into intersections, creating gridlock.

"This storm was, I believe, the impetus for Baltimore City to lure Henry Barnes away from Denver to come and make sense of our streets and traffic lights. He did a very good job; one of his legacies which still exist in Baltimore is the "Barnes Dance," where all vehicular traffic is stopped and pedestrians are free to walk across the streets unobstructed by cars and trucks.

"Thank you for the reminder of that storm. Joan K. Parr "

(SUN PHOTO/Nov. 6, 1953/Cecil County)

Unhealthy air quality in Baltimore

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:15:45 -0500

The Maryland Department of the Environment is forecasting unhealthy air quality for "sensitive groups" in Baltimore again on Tuesday, for the second day in a row. Sensitive groups include children and people with heart and respiratory ailments. They should limit their time outdoors. Healthy adults are unlikely to be affected.

Until this week there had been only four "Code Orange" days this year when particulate readings have reached unhealthy levels in the Baltimore region, with none since March, according to the MDE. (That's the Key Bridge through this morning's haze, above.)

High pressure over the region, combined with stagnant air, may be contributing to the unhealthy levels of particulates (soot), weather forecasters said. Air quality in Baltimore also reached unhealthy levels for particulate matter on Monday. Cecil County, too, is under an air quality alert from 1 a.m. Tuesday until 1 a.m. Wednesday.

Here's more from the Clean Air Partners Website:

"Unlike ground level ozone, particles are not a seasonal pollutant; high levels can occur any time of the year. Unhealthy levels of particle pollution in the air can cause or trigger significant health problems. These range from coughing and difficult or painful breathing to the possibility of an emergency room visit or even premature death. Exposure to particles can decrease lung function, weaken the heart, and possibly bring on a heart attack. The environment also suffers from particle pollution. Particles are the major source of haze, and can harm the environment by changing the nutrient and chemical balance in soil and water."

Better days are coming soon.

"It shouldn't be long-lived," said National Weather Service forecaster Andy Woodcock said of the air pollution. After Tuesday, "the wind will go to the north northeast and stay there for a while." And that should clear the air.

NASA posts very cool movie of Tropical Storm Ida

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 15:00:59 -0500

The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has assembled a very nifty movie from GOES satellite images of former Hurricane Ida, beginning as the storm entered the Yucatan Channel Nov. 7 and began to threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast, where it is making landfall today.

Have a look here.

From the clip, it becomes clear that the clouds that have overspread our region today formed from Gulf moisture and convection just west of Ida. But that flow of moisture from the western Gulf has now merged with Ida's, and the result is mild, cloudy weather for Maryland.

Ida limps toward land; could become nor'easter

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 10:12:34 -0500

An increasingly disorganized Ida weakened to tropical storm force overnight, but continues to pose a significant threat to the Gulf Coast and inland regions of the Southeastern U.S.

After landfall, the storm could reform off Cape Hatteras as an Atlantic coastal storm, bringing rain, wind, heavy surf, beach erosion and coastal flooding to shore communities from the Carolinas to New Jersey, forecasters say.

The biggest immediate worry is probably heavy rain and flooding in an area of the Deep South that has already seen more than enough rain this fall.

As Ida's center moves toward land Monday, wind shear is sending the heavy precipitation onshore well ahead of the surface low. Rainfall along the Gulf Coast today will likely total 3 to 6 inches, with some locations receiving as much as 8, forecasters said.

Once the storm's center finally reaches shore, high winds will bring water levels 3 to 5 feet above normal along the Gulf near and to the east of landfall, all compounded by large and destructive waves.

Winds, meanwhile, have diminished. The storm's top sustained winds were "just" 70 mph at last check. All hurricane watches and warnings have been dropped. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in place from Grande Isle, La. to the Aucilla River, Fla. New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain are included in the warning area.

Here is the latest advisory for Ida. Here is the forecast discussion. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space. Ida may already have played a role in the heavy rains and mudslides that killed more than 120 people in El Salvador over the weekend.

AccuWeather.com's Alex Sosnowski, meanwhile, is looking ahead a few days. He says Ida's energy could reorganize off the Atlantic coast after mid-week, taking on the proportions of a strong nor'easter. That would mean gusty onshore winds, large swells, rough surf and coastal flooding for interests from Hatteras to the Jersey Shore, including Maryland and Delaware beaches.

"The angry sea will lead to strong and frequent rip currents," Sosnowski said. "Bathers are advised to avoid the water from Wednesday into the weekend." Likewise, small craft operators should stay in port from Florida to Long Island, at least until Friday.

Baltimore's forecast calls for a chance of showers Tuesday through Thursday.

As they depart, Ida's remnants are expected to draw cold air into the region, dropping daytime highs from the low 70s, which are expected to go today, to the 50s by the latter half of the week. "The threat of heavy snow with this event has diminished," he adds, "since the storm will quickly migrate to the coast."

Mr. Foot, take note.

Hurricane Ida steams into Gulf; watches up for La.

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 11:28:55 -0500

Just when you thought we'd slipped by without a late-season hurricane this fall, Hurricane Ida puffs up and appears to be headed for the northern Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center has posted Hurricane Watches from Grand Isle, La. to the Alabama, Mississippi state line. There are flood warnings up for New Orleans, which is expected to get heavy rain. The Hurricane Watches mean hurricane conditions could develop within 36 hours, although forecasters do expect the storm will begin to lose its tropical characteristics Tuesday as it nears the Gulf Coast and experiences wind shear and cooler waters. Some chance remains, however, that it could still be a tropical storm at that point.

The storm at last check was about 75 miles northeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and about the same distance southwest of the western tip of Cuba. The storm is moving through the Yucatan Channel, and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Top sustained winds are estimated at near 90 mph, making Ida a Cat. 1 storm.

UPDATE: Ida has strengthened today to a Cat. 2 storm, with top sustained winds of almost 100 mph. The watches have been extended farther east along the Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center's advisory includes the following:

"RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS."

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Mr. Foot sees "smackdown" storm coming

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 07:23:28 -0500

I missed this when it appeared last week. Some kind of problem with my "Favorites" list. Anyway, Mr. Foot, a Baltimore County science teacher and Maryland weather watcher much-consulted by county teachers and students eager for a snow break in winter time, is forecasting a "smackdown" storm here by mid-month.

Says he:

"I've maintained a position that the atmosphere is primed and ready to deliver, all we wait for now is "Only Time." I realize we haven't dug out the Thanksgiving decorations yet, but I can't resist the urge to tell you that before long, we will be reveling in the sight of "White in the Winter Night."

Here's the sequence for his early-season prognostications:

* 11/01-09: A mild to cool period then brief warmup

* 11/10-15: Possible outbreak of Arctic air on or before 11/15

* In same week, a "smackdown" storm with snow at the onset

* 11/15-25: "yo-yo" period of below then above-normal temps

* 11/25-12/5: Seasonal temps leading to kickoff event by 12/5.

To read the rest of his forecast, visit his blog, here.

(SUN PHOTO/David Hobby/McHenry, Md., October 2006)

Heads up! Space Station flyby Sunday evening

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 07:00:46 -0500

The International Space Station is back in our evening skies, and on Sunday evening the big contraption will be flying up the East Coast and almost directly over Baltimore. (And even more directly over Ocean City.)

The weather forecast is quite promising for this pass, and the station will appear especially bright, even in badly light-polluted urban settings. It's also a convenient early-evening pass, so sky watchers will have no excuse not to step outside with the kids and get a look at your (and their) tax dollars at play.

The only hitch is that on this pass the ISS will fly into the Earth's shadow and disappear well before reaching the northeast horizon, cutting short our view, which of course depends entirely on sunlight reflecting off the hardware.

Watch for the station as it rises above the southwest horizon at 6:14 p.m. It will appear like a bright star, hustling across the sky. If you see blinking strobes, multiple or colored lights, that's a airplane. Keep looking.

The ISS will pass well above the planet Jupiter, which is now the brightest object in the southern sky. It will reach a maximum elevation of 70 degrees above the southeastern horizon at 6:17 p.m., and soon after that fade quickly away as it enters the Earth's shadow - another brief nighttime for crew aboard the station.

There are currently six crew members aboard the ISS. They include two Americans (one male, one female); two Russians; one Belgian (the first European expedition commander) and one Canadian, all male.

They are currently preparing for the scheduled arrival of the Space Shuttle Atlantis on Nov. 16. The flight, to deliver spare parts to the station, is one of the last six shuttle flights on the NASA manifest before the fleet is retired in 2010. After that, under current plans, the U.S. will have to rely on Russian vehicles to support the station and its crew.

Note to Bucket Listers: If you have never seen a shuttle launch in person, start planning now to get down to Florida to watch one of these spectacular events before it's too late. TV images of a shuttle launch do not do the experience justice. You can't see that blinding flame, hear the crackling engines, or feel the sound in your chest.

And, with the cameras focused on the shuttle, you lose all sense of the space ship's acceleration and speed as it leaps into the air and disappears from view. You simply can't believe that people willingly ride that monster. Be there.

Ida headed for Gulf this weekend

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:20:36 -0500

Weakened to tropical depression status and somewhat disrupted by its passage over parts of eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, Ida is continuing to drop life-threatening rain over the Central American countries. But the storm is expected to move back over water late today, into the northwest Caribbean, and on toward the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are getting conflicting predictions from their computer models and other guides. But the guesswork seems to be settling on a storm track into the central Gulf by early next week, with a likely curve toward Florida.

Although there is at least one model forecasting the storm will regain hurricane force, the NHC seems to be holding Ida's redevelopment to tropical storm force for the moment, citing continuing wind shear in the region and cooler waters in the Gulf.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast discussion. Here is the forecast storm track, and here is the view from orbit.

Freeze warning tonight; tender plants doomed

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:18:02 -0500

Temperatures along the I-95 corridor are set to drop into the upper 20s and low 30s Friday night into Saturday morning. The National Weather Service has posted freeze warnings from 1 a.m. to 8 a.m. Saturday for Baltimore, Washington and all counties along the Chesapeake from Harford in the north to St. Mary's in the south.

The hard freeze will finally bring the 2009 growing season to a halt in the area, and kill off any tender plants that are still outdoors tonight.

The forecast low for BWI-Marshall Airport - and for much of the surrounding region tonight, is 29 degrees, which would be the lowest reading there since April 13, when the low was also 29. Downtown, the low is likely to be slightly higher, around 33 degrees.

The cold night is brought to us courtesy of high pressure that's been building in from the Ohio Valley. That's bringing clear skies and, as it moves closer tonight, calming winds. And that is the recipe for radiational cooling tonight, which will bleed away much of the solar heating we're able to store up today, and drop temperatures.

The weekend and the early part of next week look like they'll remain mostly sunny during the day, and clear at night. Daytime highs should poke back into the 60s by Sunday.

Then there's this from the NWS:

"HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH CENTER SHOULD KEEP ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY REMNANTS OF [tropical storm] IDA WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA [forecast area] NEXT WEEK."

(SUN PHOTO/Algerina Perna/Calvert Street ginkgo tree 11/9/2008)

See the universe ... from Dundalk

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 12:48:12 -0500

The forecast is promising for Friday evening, a good opportunity to see the stars from the Comunity College of Baltimore County's Dundalk campus.

The Department of Astronomy in the School of Mathematics and Science will have its big Celestron 14-inch CGE 1400 XLT (sounds impressive, doesn't it?) telescope set up to provide the public with a close-up view of the heavens. One prominent target, I expect, will be the planet Jupiter, which is shining brightly high in the southern sky this month. Here it is in this NASA photo, with four of its moons.

This will be the first in a series of Friday evening observing sessions for the public in Dundalk this fall. Here's when and where and how:

Nov. 6, 7-9 p.m.

Nov. 20, 7-9 p.m.

Dec. 11, 7-9 p.m.

If the skies look iffy, give them a call, 45 minutes before the start of the session, at 410 282-3092 to see if it's still on.

Address: 7200 Sollers Point Road, Dundalk. Turn into CCBC Dundalk from Sollers Point Road and take the first right into the parking lot. Walk to the observatory.

Ida is now a hurricane

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:34:49 -0500

Tropical Storm Ida became the season's third hurricane overnight, with top sustained winds of 75 mph. The storm moved onshore on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, some 60 miles north of the town of Bluefields, and was expected to weaken over land. But forecasters are still predicting Ida will move back over water into the northwest Caribbean and restrengthen.

UPDATE: 1 p.m. EST. Ida was downgraded today to a tropical storm.

The storm is producing heavy rains, with 5 to 7 inches likely in most locations, and as much as 20 to 25 inches possible in some spots. Those conditions would produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides.

While there remained some possibility the storm will dissipate while over land, the forecast storm track still has Ida moving into the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, at tropical storm strength, posing some risk for the Gulf Coast of the U.S.

Here is the latest advisory for Ida. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

New tropical depression forms as season fades

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 10:48:04 -0500

The National Hurricane Center is tracking the 11th tropical depression to form this season in the Atlantic basin. The 2009 hurricane season officially ends at the end of this month.

The new storm, designated Tropical Depression 11, got its act together Tuesday in the southwestern Caribbean, and now threatens the Nicaraguan coast and offshore islands with torrential rains and 35-mph winds. It may well become the season's ninth tropical storm - Ida - later today.

UPDATE: 4 p.m. TD 11 became Tropical Storm Ida this afternoon. Top sustained winds are at 60-mph, with higher gusts. Some further intensification is likely before landfall in Nicaragua. Rainfall as high as 20 or 25 inches are possible in some locations, raising the danger of flooding and mudslides.

Forecasters think the storm will weaken as it goes ashore, and crosses over portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. But it is expected to head north, move back over the northwest Caribbean and regain tropical storm strength as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico next week. One computer model even has it reaching hurricane strength.

TD 11 was located this morning about 125 miles east southeast of Bluefields, a former buccaneer hideout on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. It was moving toward the northwest at about 8 mph.

Here is the latest advisory on TD 11. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

"Killing frost" possible tonight west of I-95

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 11:42:06 -0500

Clear skies and calming winds could combine to produce a hard freeze tonight in portions of the state west of the urban corridor. The National Weather Service forecast office in Sterling, Va. hasn't posted any frost or freeze warnings yet (except in Cecil County and on the upper Eastern Shore), but there is a "Hazardous Weather Outlook" noting that:

"TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S LATE TONIGHT WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A KILLING FROST."

UPDATE: The NWS this afternoon issued a frost advisory for all counties north and west of Baltimore, including northern Baltimore, Carroll, Howard, Frederick, Montgomery and Washington counties:

"CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC AND
BALTIMORE...THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FROST
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

"PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

"A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED."

The forecast low for BWI tonight is 37 degrees, but that drops off quickly to 33 degrees in Westminster, 32 in Shrewsbury, Pa., and in Poolesville, Md.

Thursday night may be even colder, with a low of 35 at BWI, and below freezing well west of the city. There are snow showers in the forecast for Garrett County late Wednesday and Thursday.

NOTE TO READERS: The barrel's empty. Be famous for a day. Send in your weather or backyard astronomy questions and see them answered on the Page 2 print weather page. Or is it Page 3 now? Thanks! - FDR